Short-Term Prediction of COVID-19 Cases Using Machine Learning Models

The first case in Bangladesh of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was reported on 8 March 2020, with the number of confirmed cases rapidly rising to over 175,000 by July 2020. In the absence of effective treatment, an essential tool of health policy is the modeling and forecasting of the progress of the pandemic. We, therefore, developed a cloud-based machine learning short-term forecasting model for Bangladesh, in which several regression-based machine learning models were applied to infected case data to estimate the number of COVID-19-infected people over the following seven days. This approach can accurately forecast the number of infected cases daily by training the prior 25 days sample data recorded on our web application. The outcomes of these efforts could aid the development and assessment of prevention strategies and identify factors that most affect the spread of COVID-19 infection in Bangladesh.

Pre-existing COPD is associated with an increased risk of mortality and severity in COVID-19: a rapid systematic review and meta-analysis.

Objectives: The objective of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to investigate COVID-19 mortality and severity among patients with pre-existing COPD.Methods: We performed systematic searches in Ovid Medline, Embase via Ovid, PubMed, and Scopus from 15 December 2019 to 7 July 2020. Studies which reported the association and presented data on risk estimate (Hazard Ratio [HR]) with 95% confidence intervals (95%CIs) were extracted. A random-effects model was used to obtain the pooled estimates, and a pooled Risk Ratio (RR) was calculated. Study quality was assessed using a modified version of the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale.Results: Our meta-analysis showed an increased likelihood of mortality in COVID-19 patients with pre-existing COPD (RR 3.18, 95% CI 2.11-4.80, HR 1.90, 95%CI 1.11-3.26). Furthermore, the pooled estimate for the association between pre-existing COPD and severity due to COVID-19 was also significant (RR 3.63, 95%CI 2.48-5.31). Males had an increased risk of mortality (RR 1.20, 95%CI 1.12-1.29) compared to females.Conclusion: We found that patients with pre-existing COPD had more than 3 times higher risk of mortality and severe COVID-19. There is a need to identify patients with pre-existing COPD during the pandemic so that early interventions can be aimed at this group of patients.